Madagascar’s Winter 2026:
A Warmer Season and the Growing Reality of Climate Change

[Madagascar is particularly vulnerable to these changes]

As Madagascar gradually enters the heart of the 2026 winter season, meteorologists are predicting an unusual trend: a winter that is expected to be warmer than normal. While chilly mornings and cold nights will still be part of everyday life, especially in the Central Highlands, experts believe that prolonged periods of intense cold will be less frequent than in previous years.

According to information gathered from the National Meteorological Service in Ampandrianomby, Antananarivo, “the winter will be relatively warmer than normal” this year. The announcement has sparked discussions among scientists, policymakers, and ordinary citizens alike, raising an important question: Is this another sign of climate change?

Different

A winter that feels different. On June 3, 2026, Madagascar’s General Directorate of Meteorology released a statement indicating that the country was progressively entering the winter season. The agency noted that winter 2026 could be “less cold than usual.”

The first signs of winter are already noticeable across the island. Fresh mornings, colder nights, and lower temperatures have gradually settled in throughout the country. In the Central Highlands, where winter is traditionally most pronounced, residents have begun to experience the familiar cold conditions during the early hours of the day and after sunset.

Along the coastal regions, temperatures remain generally milder, although a slight coolness has also started to appear. Nevertheless, meteorologists emphasize that temperatures are expected to remain relatively high for the season. Both mornings and daytime conditions are likely to be warmer than those usually observed during a typical Malagasy winter.

“In general, winter 2026 could therefore be characterized more by relatively high temperatures than by prolonged episodes of intense cold,” according to the meteorological forecast.

This does not mean that winter has disappeared. The National Meteorological Service has been careful to clarify that cold weather will still occur. However, the average number of cold days is expected to decrease, making the season feel milder overall.

Madagascar’s winter

What does winter usually look like in Madagascar? Madagascar’s winter, which generally extends from May to September, varies significantly depending on geography and altitude.

The Central Highlands, including Antananarivo, Antsirabe, and Fianarantsoa, often experience cool to cold conditions. Temperatures can drop below 10°C during the night and early morning, while daytime temperatures remain moderate.

In some high-altitude areas, frost occasionally occurs, affecting agriculture and rural livelihoods. Farmers frequently face challenges protecting crops from cold temperatures, particularly during years marked by stronger cold spells.

In contrast, coastal regions enjoy a much milder winter. Temperatures remain relatively warm throughout the season, although cooler trade winds and lower humidity levels create a more comfortable climate than during the hot summer months.

Historically, winter in Madagascar has been associated with crisp mornings, cold nights, and a significant difference between daytime and nighttime temperatures. The forecast for 2026 suggests that this traditional pattern may be less pronounced.

A Sign ?

Is this a sign of climate change? Many climate experts would argue that it is. Climate change does not simply mean that every day becomes hotter. Instead, it refers to long-term changes in average weather patterns. One of its most visible manifestations is the gradual increase in global temperatures, accompanied by more frequent weather anomalies and seasonal disruptions.

The prediction of a warmer-than-normal winter fits into a broader trend observed worldwide. Across many regions of the planet, winters are becoming less severe, heatwaves are becoming more frequent, and temperature records are being broken with increasing regularity.

Madagascar is particularly vulnerable to these changes. As an island nation located in the southwestern Indian Ocean, its economy, biodiversity, and population are highly sensitive to climatic variations.

A warmer winter may seem less alarming than a devastating cyclone or a severe drought. However, it can have significant consequences for agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, and public health. Changes in seasonal temperatures can disrupt crop cycles, alter the behavior of wildlife, and affect the spread of certain diseases.

For scientists, warmer winters are among the many indicators suggesting that climate change is no longer a distant threat but a present reality.

Other Signs

Other signs of climate change in Madagascar. The relatively warm winter forecast is only one piece of a much larger puzzle. Over the past decades, Madagascar has experienced several manifestations of climate change.

More Frequent Droughts
Southern Madagascar has repeatedly suffered from severe droughts, leading to food insecurity and humanitarian crises. Reduced rainfall and prolonged dry periods have affected agricultural production and access to drinking water.

Stronger Cyclones
The island is regularly exposed to tropical cyclones, but climate scientists warn that warmer ocean temperatures may contribute to more intense storms. In recent years, several powerful cyclones have caused widespread destruction to infrastructure, agriculture, and housing.

Irregular Rainfall
Many regions are experiencing increasingly unpredictable rainfall patterns. Farmers often report difficulties determining the best planting periods because traditional seasonal calendars are becoming less reliable.

Rising Temperatures
Average temperatures across Madagascar have shown a gradual upward trend. Heat stress affects both urban and rural populations and places additional pressure on ecosystems already under threat.

Threats to Biodiversity
Madagascar is renowned for its unique biodiversity. Climate change, combined with deforestation and habitat loss, threatens many endemic species that exist nowhere else on Earth.